Sino-Myanmar Watcher

Well, here we are in the second month of 2010 and still no word from Bogyoke Than Shwe on when the supposed elections will be held this year. Most opposition analysts see this election as just a rubber stamp for continued military rule. Still others (David Steinberg and Thant Myint U) believe that with Than Shwe near the end of his rule, the time is ripe for some big shuffles in the military. I'm inclined to believe the latter. Although the new system will certainly not be a representative democracy by any stretch of the word. It will allow for some political movement that could be exploited in the future. The current situation is pretty bleak. The main opposition party is aging and essentially inconsequential. Myanmar has lost most civil society and the groups that remain are constantly being hounded by military intelligence. As a result, the main opposition groups should consider what bargaining power they actually have. The threat of further protests and public defiance aga

China and Myanmar have been neighbors for centuries, but the modern world is bringing them closer together than ever before. The construction of pipelines, hydro-electric power plants, revitalization of the Burma road, massive migration on both sides of the border and simmering ethnic conflicts will keep China heavily involved in Myanmar for the foreseeable future. But the relationship between Beijing and Nyapyidaw is by no means simple or one-sided. China doesn't pull any strings with the xenophobic generals that run what is now known as the State Peace and Development Council. With the recent shift in US policy towards direct engagement with Nyapyidaw we can expect that things will get more interesting between China and Myanmar in the near future. Now that you know why you should care, here is what I intend to do. I will create a detailed summary of events in the news over the past week involving Sino-Myanmar relations. While I can't always promise to stay on topic. (I might