Sino-Myanmar Watcher

I had the pleasure of sitting in on a presentation by Mac McClelland about her new book, "A Story From Burma's Never-Ending War". The presentation was generally good. However, I wish she had used a more structured power point presentation. As much as I love good ad libbing. It's much easier to understand 100 years of complex history with the assistance of some nice visual aids. While much of the information was old hat for any serious Burma-phile. A few points warrant further discussion. CIA involvement on both sides of the Burmese civil war: After the Guo Min Dang lost control of China in 1949. A number of GMD insurgents took up arms in a part of the Shan state and attempted to re-invade China through Yunnan province. The CIA armed both sides in an effort to stabilize the regime in Rangoon and create momentum for pushing the Chinese Communist Party out of power. Not surprisingly, the attacks were repulsed and the CCP backed the Communist Party of Burma through much

Well, here we are in the second month of 2010 and still no word from Bogyoke Than Shwe on when the supposed elections will be held this year. Most opposition analysts see this election as just a rubber stamp for continued military rule. Still others (David Steinberg and Thant Myint U) believe that with Than Shwe near the end of his rule, the time is ripe for some big shuffles in the military. I'm inclined to believe the latter. Although the new system will certainly not be a representative democracy by any stretch of the word. It will allow for some political movement that could be exploited in the future. The current situation is pretty bleak. The main opposition party is aging and essentially inconsequential. Myanmar has lost most civil society and the groups that remain are constantly being hounded by military intelligence. As a result, the main opposition groups should consider what bargaining power they actually have. The threat of further protests and public defiance aga