After the Elections - What Next?
Well, here we are in the second month of 2010 and still no word from Bogyoke Than Shwe on when the supposed elections will be held this year. Most opposition analysts see this election as just a rubber stamp for continued military rule. Still others (David Steinberg and Thant Myint U) believe that with Than Shwe near the end of his rule, the time is ripe for some big shuffles in the military.
I'm inclined to believe the latter.
Although the new system will certainly not be a representative democracy by any stretch of the word. It will allow for some political movement that could be exploited in the future. The current situation is pretty bleak. The main opposition party is aging and essentially inconsequential. Myanmar has lost most civil society and the groups that remain are constantly being hounded by military intelligence. As a result, the main opposition groups should consider what bargaining power they actually have. The threat of further protests and public defiance against Than Shwe's regime might make for good news. But all things considered, the military will always be a major part of Myanmar political life. It has been in power too long and has too much control to simply wish it all away in a color revolution.
The best change in Myanmar would be incremental. A power sharing arrangement between the ethnic groups, the military and the main political opposition, the NLD. But in order for that to happen there must be a civil society to exert pressure on the military leadership. Money talks, and right now the best money is made pillaging the countries resources via the various military controlled industries scattered about the country. Without an independent economy, there is no alternative to the military controlled purse strings that have kept Myanmar in perpetually inept hands since the fall of U Ne Win in the late 1980's. Therefore, I say trade is good. Sanction the military corporations all you want. But try and raise some sort of economy that is independent of the military. Myanmar needs another source of power to challenge the military's control over the country. A vibrant and growing economy should do the trick.
I'm inclined to believe the latter.
Although the new system will certainly not be a representative democracy by any stretch of the word. It will allow for some political movement that could be exploited in the future. The current situation is pretty bleak. The main opposition party is aging and essentially inconsequential. Myanmar has lost most civil society and the groups that remain are constantly being hounded by military intelligence. As a result, the main opposition groups should consider what bargaining power they actually have. The threat of further protests and public defiance against Than Shwe's regime might make for good news. But all things considered, the military will always be a major part of Myanmar political life. It has been in power too long and has too much control to simply wish it all away in a color revolution.
The best change in Myanmar would be incremental. A power sharing arrangement between the ethnic groups, the military and the main political opposition, the NLD. But in order for that to happen there must be a civil society to exert pressure on the military leadership. Money talks, and right now the best money is made pillaging the countries resources via the various military controlled industries scattered about the country. Without an independent economy, there is no alternative to the military controlled purse strings that have kept Myanmar in perpetually inept hands since the fall of U Ne Win in the late 1980's. Therefore, I say trade is good. Sanction the military corporations all you want. But try and raise some sort of economy that is independent of the military. Myanmar needs another source of power to challenge the military's control over the country. A vibrant and growing economy should do the trick.
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