After the Elections - What Next?
Well, here we are in the second month of 2010 and still no word from Bogyoke Than Shwe on when the supposed elections will be held this year. Most opposition analysts see this election as just a rubber stamp for continued military rule. Still others (David Steinberg and Thant Myint U) believe that with Than Shwe near the end of his rule, the time is ripe for some big shuffles in the military. I'm inclined to believe the latter. Although the new system will certainly not be a representative democracy by any stretch of the word. It will allow for some political movement that could be exploited in the future. The current situation is pretty bleak. The main opposition party is aging and essentially inconsequential. Myanmar has lost most civil society and the groups that remain are constantly being hounded by military intelligence. As a result, the main opposition groups should consider what bargaining power they actually have. The threat of further protests and public defiance aga